The intelligence we use for predictive purposes, policy purposes, moving military forces, and more is key for major historical events. However, failures of imagination can occur, and we sometimes don’t get it right. The State Department released its report on the Afghan withdrawal right before the 4th of July holiday, and one of the key things to know is how we failed to anticipate that the Taliban would actually take control of Afghanistan. When this happened back in August of 2021, a whole series of events led to chaotic evacuation of American and Afghan personnel from Kabul over the next few weeks after the fall of that city, and fall of the Afghan capital.
This episode of Intel Insights is going to focus on historical examples of major events that were not predicted or ignored all together, the Black Swan theory and the Ludic fallacy (both proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb), and more. We’ll also discuss 5 key things to consider when looking at major historical events, and why the time and stage of conflict surrounding these events is important.
Intel agencies get into trouble every day trying to predict the future, and even bigger trouble if they’re wrong about their predictions. With that being said, we have to keep trying and really focus on what’s going on with real people, in real time. The more we look at the totality of the information that we have, and the more we apply logic and understanding to that information, the more likely we will be better off when it comes to predicting what will happen next. Ultimately, the predictive capabilities that we have need to be honed on a continual basis.
Interesting Fact:
The term ‘Black Swan’ has a rather interesting history by itself. Originally, it was thought that there was no such thing as a black swan in nature. It wasn’t until 1697 when some Dutch explorers in western Australia discovered real black swans. The term then changed from something that did not exist or was rare, to a perceived possibility in a situation that can actually become real.
Episode Timestamps:
- Examples of major historical events occurring that were not predicted or were ignored {2:23}
- The Black Swan theory {4:59}
- The Ludic fallacy {9:58}
- Decision theory {11:36}
- 5 important things to consider when it comes to the occurrence of major historical events {12:18}
“We really all need to find ways in which we can better predict the impact of events and what those events could be. We need to understand that there are different possibilities out there, and that what might seem ludicrous or impossible can actually happen, because there is some kind of historical precedent for it. There are certain things that could potentially occur.”
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